Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 2.217365 2.589315 3.001952 3.493333 4.062246 4.699926 5.468675
2025-12-28 1.723818 2.245293 2.886421 3.731047 4.813002 6.151028 7.930126
2026-01-04 1.348142 1.921706 2.689061 3.787107 5.314256 7.359034 10.300836
2026-01-11 1.097780 1.689174 2.538948 3.842532 5.784740 8.563174 12.830600
2026-01-18 0.908448 1.494756 2.391467 3.852972 6.164385 9.665381 15.353838
2026-01-25 0.759499 1.327390 2.245968 3.826518 6.462780 10.663583 17.837762
2026-02-01 0.608890 1.125827 2.006754 3.600777 6.393658 11.057136 19.394927
2026-02-08 0.507256 0.987992 1.847564 3.476598 6.462461 11.665740 21.365223
2026-02-15 0.439030 0.897457 1.754483 3.449696 6.688758 12.559329 23.929955
2026-02-22 0.402238 0.859757 1.750907 3.584301 7.223407 14.060018 27.772481
2026-03-01 0.352789 0.787619 1.669103 3.553250 7.433780 14.981364 30.638964
2026-03-08 0.308932 0.719213 1.583470 3.499704 7.588135 15.807658 33.415421
2026-03-15 0.273267 0.664181 1.520711 3.492385 7.853559 16.922153 36.993577
2026-03-22 0.263697 0.667175 1.584210 3.769955 8.768819 19.492448 43.952728
2026-03-29 0.239842 0.632014 1.556989 3.840521 9.241662 21.196833 49.302850
2026-04-05 0.218312 0.598455 1.527826 3.901546 9.701215 22.931487 54.952055
2026-04-12 0.196685 0.560461 1.481618 3.913803 10.047315 24.455611 60.325191
2026-04-19 0.175850 0.520504 1.423791 3.887509 10.295292 25.783931 65.415326
2026-04-26 0.148545 0.457213 1.295280 3.658462 10.001861 25.788323 67.326792
2026-05-03 0.129392 0.413419 1.211003 3.532415 9.953327 26.380290 70.762914
2026-05-10 0.116443 0.385491 1.165552 3.505115 10.162231 27.643222 76.065701
2026-05-17 0.110557 0.378218 1.177480 3.641821 10.839098 30.196106 85.054468
2026-05-24 0.099847 0.353391 1.133945 3.610289 11.039491 31.518217 90.934520